Research Article 2026-04-22 under-review v1

Acute effects of ambient temperature on electric bicycle accident risk at the hourly scale in Guangzhou, China

Y
Yidong Luo Jinan University
S
Sui Zhu Jinan University
H
Han Yue Guangzhou University
T
Tao Liu Jinan University
G
Guanhao He Jinan University
J
Jianxiong Hu Jinan University
Z
Ziqiang Lin Jinan University
C
Cheng Chen Nanjing University
T
Tengfei Yang Southern Medical University
Q
Qifeng Miao Southern Medical University
H
Haotian Zeng Guangzhou public security bureau
D
Dongri Li Southern Medical University
F
Fengrui Jing Jinan University
W
Wenjun Ma Jinan University

Abstract

Electrically assisted two-wheelers (e-bikes) have become an integral component of urban mobility in China. However, the sensitivity of e-bike accident risk to short-term meteorological variations at fine temporal scales remains underexplored. This study investigated the association between short-term hourly ambient temperature exposure and e-bike accident risk in Guangzhou, China, with particular attention to lag structure and effect heterogeneity. Using 4,041 accident records collected between 2022 and 2024, we applied a time-stratified case-crossover design combined with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) to estimate temperature-associated risk while adjusting for atmospheric confounders. We found a positive association between ambient temperature and e-bike accident risk. The association was strongest within the first 1−2 hours after exposure (RR ≈ 1.023 per 1 °C increase) and gradually attenuated over the subsequent 12−14 hours. Stratified analyses showed that the association was more evident during the daytime period and in winter. Interaction analyses further suggested that the temperature-associated risk increase was more pronounced under low-to-moderate humidity and non-rainy conditions, whereas it appeared weaker under high-humidity or rainy conditions. These findings provide new evidence on the acute, hourly-scale effects of temperature on e-bike traffic safety and support the development of meteorology-informed early warning strategies for high-exposure rider groups in warming urban environments.

Citation Information

@article{yidongluo2026,
  title={Acute effects of ambient temperature on electric bicycle accident risk at the hourly scale in Guangzhou, China},
  author={Yidong Luo and Sui Zhu and Han Yue and Tao Liu and Guanhao He and Jianxiong Hu and Ziqiang Lin and Cheng Chen and Tengfei Yang and Qifeng Miao and Haotian Zeng and Dongri Li and Fengrui Jing and Wenjun Ma},
  journal={Journal of Urban Health},
  year={2026},
  doi={https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9406416/v1}
}
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