An RBC–DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy with Electricity as a Production Input
Abstract
This paper develops estimated and calibrated real business cycle (RBC) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models of the U.S. economy in which electricity enters explicitly as a productive input alongside capital and labor. Using quarterly U.S. data spanning 1979Q1–2025Q3, the analysis evaluates how electricity supply-related shocks influence macroeconomic activity, business-cycle dynamics, and medium-term economic stability. By integrating electricity quantities and prices into the production structure, the model provides a framework for assessing the macroeconomic consequences of energy supply disruptions and infrastructure constraints. Empirical results indicate that the estimated model is internally consistent and empirically reliable, as reflected in statistically significant variance estimates, stable steady states, and well-behaved out-of-sample forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. Electricity-related dynamics are tightly linked to output, investment, and labor markets, underscoring electricity’s role as a complementary input rather than a passive cost factor. Impulse response analysis shows that shocks to electricity supply propagate through the economy in a manner similar to negative productivity shocks, generating persistent contractions in output, investment, and hours worked. While electricity’s steady-state cost share is relatively small, its importance in production amplifies short-run fluctuations and strengthens the transmission of real shocks. Comparisons between estimated and calibrated models reveal robust qualitative mechanisms, with differences in persistence and magnitude reflecting alternative assumptions about adjustment frictions and shock processes. From a policy perspective, the findings highlight the macroeconomic importance of electricity system reliability, grid investment, and energy supply resilience. Policies that affect electricity availability—whether through regulation, infrastructure investment, or climate-related transitions—can have economy-wide effects comparable to technology shocks. The results underscore the need for macroeconomic policy frameworks to explicitly account for electricity supply conditions when evaluating growth prospects, business-cycle stabilization, and the economic implications of the ongoing energy transition.
Citation Information
@article{bahramadrangi2026,
title={An RBC–DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy with Electricity as a Production Input},
author={Bahram Adrangi and Maryam Amini and Saman Hatamerad and Kambiz Raffiee},
journal={Research Square},
year={2026},
doi={https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8818848/v1}
}
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