Physical Sciences - Article 2026-04-22 under-review v1

Warming of West Antarctic continental-shelf waters over the last century

Y
Yoshihiro Nakayama Dartmouth College
J
Jentry Campbell Dartmouth Libraries, Dartmouth College
E
Eric Steig University of Washington
V
Viktor Gouretski Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
K
Karen Heywood Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Enviromental Sciences

Abstract

West Antarctic ice shelves are rapidly melting and thinning, accelerating global sea-level rise. Limited glaciological and paleoceanographic evidence suggests that the continental shelf regions may have undergone a regime shift from a cold to a warm state during the past century, but no direct ocean observations have captured such a transition. Here, we synthesize ocean observations spanning from the late 19th century to the present, including newly-available data from 1898 through the 1980s that reveal the long-term evolution of the West Antarctic continental-shelf ocean. We identify three distinct phases: initial thin warm-water intrusions, thermocline shallowing, and intrusions of even warmer and lighter water masses. The first phase appears to have begun in the early twentieth century, driven by the large-scale shoaling of Circumpolar Deep Water. Our results provide direct observational evidence that continental-shelf ocean warming began in the early 20th century, which suggests that West Antarctic glacier retreat may also have begun earlier than is commonly thought. Early 20th-century warming in coastal West Antarctica represents a critical observational constraint for improving Earth system models in both hindcasts and future projections.

Citation Information

@article{yoshihironakayama2026,
  title={Warming of West Antarctic continental-shelf waters over the last century},
  author={Yoshihiro Nakayama and Jentry Campbell and Eric Steig and Viktor Gouretski and Karen Heywood},
  journal={Nature Portfolio},
  year={2026},
  doi={https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9282019/v1}
}
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