Research Article 2026-04-21 posted v1

Carbon Prices and Cooking Fires: How Decarbonization Pathway Design Shapes Household Energy Burdens

M
Mel George Center for Global Sustainability (CGS), University of Maryland - College Park
L
Leon Clarke Center for Global Sustainability (CGS), University of Maryland - College Park
J
Jihoon Min IIASA Laxenburg, Austria
S
Shonali Pachauri IIASA Laxenburg, Austria
A
Anand Patwardhan School of Public Policy, Univ of Maryland - College Park
N
Narasimha D Rao Yale School of the Environment, Yale University
H
Haewon McJeon KAIST School of Green Growth & Sustainability, Daejeon Korea

Abstract

Climate mitigation pathways impose uneven burdens across income groups, yet analyses typically focus on revenue recycling rather than on how pathway architecture shapes distributional outcomes. We examine 17 pathways to 1.5°C and trace their impacts to household energy burdens across income deciles in India and the United States. Pathway architecture is a primary determinant of whether mitigation is progressive or regressive. Technology, pace, and cost-optimal pathways are regressive: the poorest households bear cost increases up to an order of magnitude larger than the richest. Demand-side pathways lower carbon prices by curbing demand among high-income consumers, creating development space that alleviates burdens in developing countries. Historical responsibility pathways with international transfers generate progressive outcomes for recipient countries at the expense of donor households. These patterns persist under consumption rebound, albeit attenuated. Distributional consequences are embedded in pathway design, not correctable through revenue policy alone.

Citation Information

@article{melgeorge2026,
  title={Carbon Prices and Cooking Fires: How Decarbonization Pathway Design Shapes Household Energy Burdens},
  author={Mel George and Leon Clarke and Jihoon Min and Shonali Pachauri and Anand Patwardhan and Narasimha D Rao and Haewon McJeon},
  journal={Research Square},
  year={2026},
  doi={https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9442656/v1}
}
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