Accelerated groundwater deficit in humid environments reshapes rapid-intensified droughts
Abstract
Groundwater moves slowly, until it doesn't. Two decades of global satellite assimilated data reveal that aquifers in humid, energy-limited environments lose their storage at sub-seasonal timescales, transmitting vadose zone drought signals downward within days to one month, far faster than the months-to-years lag that is frequently observed in drylands. This inverts the established geography of flash droughts, which are characterized by root-zone soil moisture deficit and primarily peak in dry-wet transitional zones, underscoring a noteworthy mechanism. Specifically, the tight hydraulic coupling between the unsaturated and saturated soil zones in wet environments means that when wet-season delivery falters, the system drains at full velocity through baseflow while vegetation pulls simultaneously from above. The aquifer does not buffer the shock but conducts it. In the tropics specifically, ENSO and tropical Atlantic oscillations act as remote dispatchers of this collapse, suppressing monsoon recharge at 3–9 month lead times precisely when baseflow and evaporative demand are highest. Groundwater storage, filtered of high-frequency atmospheric noise, registers these low-frequency oceanic signals with higher fidelity than surface soil moisture, making it a more tractable target for subseasonal prediction in the humid regions where abrupt water shortage carries the greatest human cost.
Keywords
Citation Information
@article{hyunglokkim2026,
title={Accelerated groundwater deficit in humid environments reshapes rapid-intensified droughts},
author={Hyunglok Kim and Hoang Nguyen and S.-Y. Simon Wang and Di Long and Venkataraman Lakshmi and Jin-Ho Yoon},
journal={Nature Portfolio},
year={2026},
doi={https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9451212/v1}
}
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