Research Article 2026-04-20 under-review v1

Integrating health and climate resilience in Brazil’s largest social housing program: A community-based system dynamics approach applied to Minha Casa, Minha Vida

A
Ana Luiza Favarão Leão Washington University in St. Louis
M
Milena Franco Silva Washington University in St. Louis
G
Guilherme Stefano Goulardins Universidade de São Paulo
A
Alexandre Augusto de Paula da Silva Washington University in St. Louis
Y
Yi Wang Washington University in St. Louis
M
Maryse Rios-Hernandez Washington University in St. Louis
A
Alessandro Lunelli Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná
P
Paulo Nascimento Neto Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná
A
Alex Antônio Florindo Universidade de São Paulo
R
Rodrigo Siqueira Reis Washington University in St. Louis

Abstract

Climate change impacts and health inequities intersect sharply in Brazil’s social housing, where housing location, design, and governance shape residents’ exposure to environmental hazards and everyday wellbeing. Yet housing, health, and climate agendas often operate in parallel, limiting integrated policy responses for low-income residents of the Minha Casa, Minha Vida (MCMV) Faixa 1 program. This study used Group Model Building (GMB) to co-develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) mapping interactions among housing, health, and climate resilience in MCMV Faixa 1 and to identify leverage points for equitable, climate-resilient policy and practice. We conducted a two-day, in-person GMB workshop in São Paulo (August 2025) with 18 participants (11 external experts and 7 research team members) representing public health, architecture, urban planning, geography, nutrition, and social policy. Structured facilitation scripts were used to identify system variables and relationships, which were synthesized into a CLD and iteratively refined through documentation review and participant validation. The resulting CLD included 35 variables across three domains: health (n = 7), climate resilience (n = 8), and broader social and governance influences (n = 20). Income inequality by race and gender emerged as the most structurally central variable, bridging social, environmental, and policy subsystems. Adaptive urban design and climate-oriented policy implementation also showed high connectivity, linking built-environment interventions to health and resilience outcomes. Reinforcing dynamics connected resilient housing quality, adaptive urban design, and social participation to improvements in wellbeing and adaptive capacity, while balancing dynamics reflected constraints associated with socioeconomic inequality, peripheralization, and urban violence. Leverage points clustered around six areas: integrated housing design standards, urban greening and nature-based solutions, active mobility and low-carbon transport connectivity, participatory governance, intersectoral policy coordination, and integrated monitoring systems. These findings highlight actionable policy levers to support more equitable and climate-resilient housing strategies within the MCMV program.

Citation Information

@article{analuizafavaroleo2026,
  title={Integrating health and climate resilience in Brazil’s largest social housing program: A community-based system dynamics approach applied to Minha Casa, Minha Vida},
  author={Ana Luiza Favarão Leão and Milena Franco Silva and Guilherme Stefano Goulardins and Alexandre Augusto de Paula da Silva and Yi Wang and Maryse Rios-Hernandez and Alessandro Lunelli and Paulo Nascimento Neto and Alex Antônio Florindo and Rodrigo Siqueira Reis},
  journal={Systemic Practice and Action Research},
  year={2026},
  doi={https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9041181/v1}
}
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