Research Article 2026-04-23 under-review v1

Universal Health Coverage, Health System Capacity and Maternal Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Post-COVID Era Using Dynamic Panel and Threshold Models

O
Okechukwu Alexander Okeke University of Port Harcourt
S
Seun Adebanjo Statistical training and consultation

Abstract

Background Maternal mortality remains a major public health challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa despite global progress in maternal healthcare and increased policy commitments toward improving reproductive health outcomes. Weak health systems, limited healthcare infrastructure, and inadequate access to essential maternal health services continue to contribute to preventable maternal deaths across many countries in the region. Universal Health Coverage (UHC) has been widely promoted as a key strategy for improving maternal health outcomes by expanding access to essential healthcare services without financial hardship. However, the effectiveness of UHC may depend on the capacity of national health systems, including healthcare financing, workforce availability, and service infrastructure. This study investigates the combined effects of universal health coverage and health system capacity on maternal mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa during the post-COVID era.Methods The study utilises a longitudinal panel dataset encompassing 25 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2024, resulting in a balanced sample of 625 country-year observations. The Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) is used as the outcome variable, while key explanatory variables include the UHC Service Coverage Index and health system capacity indicators, such as health expenditure, physician density, hospital beds, and skilled birth attendance. Socioeconomic controls include GDP per capita, female secondary school enrollment, urban population share, and fertility rate. The analysis applies dynamic System-Generalised Method of Moments (System-GMM), panel threshold regression, and Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) models to capture dynamic, nonlinear, and cross-country relationships.Results The findings reveal significant persistence in maternal mortality across countries. Universal health coverage and health expenditure are associated with reductions in maternal mortality in both the short and long run. Threshold analysis indicates that the effectiveness of UHC improves when health system infrastructure surpasses a critical capacity level. Urbanisation also contributes to improved maternal health outcomes.Conclusion Strengthening universal health coverage alongside investments in healthcare infrastructure and financing is essential for reducing maternal mortality and achieving maternal health targets across Sub-Saharan Africa.

Citation Information

@article{okechukwualexanderokeke2026,
  title={Universal Health Coverage, Health System Capacity and Maternal Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Post-COVID Era Using Dynamic Panel and Threshold Models},
  author={Okechukwu Alexander Okeke and Seun Adebanjo},
  journal={Discover Public Health},
  year={2026},
  doi={https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9118672/v1}
}
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