Article 2026-04-23 under-review v1

Assessing Earthquake potential and Fault Activity from a Dense 3D Geodetic Velocity field in Hispaniola

Y
Yi-Chieh Lee Missouri University of Science and Technology
R
Rishabh Dutta The University of Texas at Dallas
J
Jeremy Maurer Missouri University of Science and Technology

Abstract

The transpressive plate boundary between the Caribbean and North American plates in Hispaniola is a complex system of strike-slip faults, subduction zones, fold-and-thrust belts, and normal faulting. Tectonic deformation studies in this region have traditionally relied on sparse Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) networks. Here we present a new assessment of deformation in Hispaniola using a dense 3D velocity field generated by integrating existing GNSS observations with new Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) velocities. Our InSAR processing approach utilizes phase linking, statistically-based multi-looking, and wrapped phase time-series estimation to mitigate noise, and a spatial covariance model of the troposphere to reduce its effect on the time-series estimation. We use the resulting high-resolution velocity field to calculate strain rates and model crustal faulting in Hispaniola. Strain rate tensors show a transpressional tectonic regime consistent with expectations from the regional tectonics. Modeling results indicate that the Septentrional-Oriente Fault zone is nearly fully locked with moment accumulation consistent with a Mw 7.9 earthquake every 300 years, while the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden Fault is almost fully creeping at the western end of the fault and has a much lower moment accumulation rate.

Citation Information

@article{yichiehlee2026,
  title={Assessing Earthquake potential and Fault Activity from a Dense 3D Geodetic Velocity field in Hispaniola},
  author={Yi-Chieh Lee and Rishabh Dutta and Jeremy Maurer},
  journal={Scientific Reports},
  year={2026},
  doi={https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9372729/v1}
}
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